J. D. Sauerländer's Verlag, Bad Orb

This review article analyzes scientific meteorological literature concerning changes in frequency and intensity of winter storminess over the North-Atlantic European region with respect to climate change signals. Studies about conditions in the past were considered as well as simulations of future storminess. In general we found that (i) analyses concerning storm activity – compared to ground level air temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration and precipitation – are characterized by a high degree of uncertainty, that (ii) phases of more extreme storms occurred historically as part of the natural climate variability, and that (iii) a clear relationship between anthropogenic climate change and increasing intensity and/or number of winter storms over the North-Atlantic European region could not yet be established. Retrospective studies reveal contradictory results without a clear trend towards significant positive or negative changes. Equally inconsistent are the findings of modelling studies dealing with storminess under climate change conditions of the late 21st century; however, judged by the number of studies, a weak trend towards more intense storms can be observed. Quite reliably we can state that increasing storm activity during summertime is not to be expected. In conclusion we discuss the meaning of those findings for applied forest management, i. e. choice of tree species and silvicultural treatment regimes.

Download