J. D. Sauerländer's Verlag, Bad Orb

The aim of this investigation was to find out whether coniferous stands founded with quite few plants and pruned at an early stage are financially advantageous compared with normally managed, but also pruned stands. The risk of failure and the volatility of timber prices were also considered. The development of the normally managed stands was based on results of the forest growth simulator SILVA while the growth of the widely spaced stands was based on results of trial plots in Freising, Traunstein and Burglengenfeld. The harvested assortments in these stands were determined with the help of BDAT. Taking these data the inflows could be calculated. It was assumed, that the stems were pruned up to a height of 5,5 m. The valuation of the alternatives was done with the help of annuities which were calculated within a Monte-Carlo-Simulation with 5.000 repetitions for interest rates of 2% and 3%. The assessment of the different treatments was not only done by the annuities but also with the help of the certainty equivalent, the probability of losses and the expected shortfall. In addition to this it was determined which price is necessary for the pruned timber of the widely spaced stands to achieve the same annuities as the normally managed stands. The mean annuities of the widely spaced stands always were much higher than those of the normally managed stands. As a consequence the price of the knot-free timber of the widely spaced spruce stands could be much lower than in the past and could even become negative for the knot-free pine timber and these stands would still obtain the same annuities as the normally managed stands. Considering the certainty equivalent and the expected shortfall the normally managed spruce stands were advantageous at an interest rate of 2%. Rising the interest rate to 3% the widely spaced spruce stands were advantageous after these two criteria. However the widely spaced spruce stands had a little higher probability of losses as normally managed stands. On the other hand the widely spaced pine stands were always advantageous considering these criteria.

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